ANTICIPAN UNA INFLACION DEL 22 %
A pesar de los esfuerzos del equipo económico por transmitir tranquilidad a los mercados, las calificadoras de riesgo encendieron luces de alarma sobre la economía local. Algunas de ellas lo hicieron, inclusive, antes de que se conociera el aumento de la tasa de interés que el propio ministro de Hacienda reconoció que era recesiva.
Para las calificadoras de riesgo y bancos de inversión los cambios en la política monetaria y el ajuste fiscal no son suficientes. Los cambios anunciados esta mañana por el Palacio de Hacienda y el Banco Central fueron cuestionados por los analistas de esas firmas. Un reporte publicado por la firma Fitch mantuvo en “B” la calificación de la deuda en moneda extranjera de largo plazo emitida por argentina pero rebajó la perspectiva para esos pasivos de “positiva” a “estable”. Los cambios, explicó la empresa al mediodía, reflejarían “fricciones macroeconómicas y viento de frente político”. Aunque expresan cierto optimismo global con la política económica advierten que la inflación finalizará 2018 en 23 por ciento.
Desde Goldman Sachs advirtieron que “el éxito no está garantizado” pero también celebraron las decisiones tomadas por el Gobierno. “El Banco Central todavía enfrenta un escenario desafiante. Su accionar en los últimos días fue atrevido y un paso en la dirección correcta, pero no hay garantías de que sea suficiente para estabilizar la deriva en la dinámica del mercado cambiario”, escribieron en las oficias del banco de Nueva York al referirse a la costosa intervención que llevó al BCRA a entregar al mercado alrededor de 6000 millones de sus reservas internacionales, validar una escalada del dólar de 10 por ciento y subir hasta 40 por ciento las tasas de interés de referencia.
Las agencias calificadoras de riesgo son un engranaje ineludible en el actual diseño del sistema financiero global. Las empresas, países, provincias o municipios interesados en endeudarse deben necesariamente legitimar sus iniciativas a través de las notas que otorgan firmas como Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s y Fitch. A pesar del evidente fracaso de las calificadoras para cumplir su función, su escasa capacidad técnica y falta de rigurosidad metodológica, el fraude registrado en sus evaluaciones de los activos estructurados con hipotecas subprime y su complicidad en la profundización de la crisis estructural de la Eurozona, las reglas de juego vigentes no ofrecen alternativas: obtener una calificación es condición necesaria para que un bono sea consumido por los mercados.
“Aun resta más por hacer, pero la probabilidad de tener éxito es mayor que si las autoridades no hubieran reaccionado como lo hicieron», señaló en una nota el analista del banco Alberto Ramos. En la misma sintonía se expresaron desde la calificadora Mody’s, para quien las medidas permitirán contener en el corto plazo la volatilidad cambiaria. La empresa emitió una breve declaración, firmada por Gabriel Torres, vicepresidente de la firma, donde advierte que “el reciente debilitamiento del peso refleja una mayor percepción de riesgo para activos argentinos, esto constituye un acontecimiento negativo en términos crediticios para Argentina, que depende de flujos de capital externos para financiar el déficit fiscal y el de la cuenta corriente”. (Fuente: Página 12)
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References:
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